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THE WALL STREET JOURNAL ASIA
《华尔街日报评论》亚洲版

February 1, 2008
2008年2月1日

It's easy to have a partially liberalized market economy when times are good. But as Beijing is now discovering, it's a lot harder when things stop going your way. With food prices rising and power supplies disrupted by bad weather on the eve of the Lunar New Year holiday, policy makers are facing a winter of discontent instead of the social harmony they usually try to encourage.
在风调雨顺时，实施局部自由市场经济体制并不困难；然而，北京现在却发现：一旦事与愿背，诸事将倍难对付。在农历春节前夕，随着物价的上涨和电力供应因恶劣天气而中断，决策者正面临一个充满牢骚的严冬，远非往日竭力宣扬的和谐社会。

Consumer prices were up 4.8% for all of last year, but inflation for January is expected to clock in at 7%. Food accounts for about 85% of that increase, and it's confined mainly to two categories: pork, a staple of the Chinese diet, and cooking oil. Thanks to strong competition among most manufacturers, prices for other goods are increasing by only about 1.5%.
居民消费价格曾是去年全年的4.8%，但一月份的通货膨胀率预计将敲向7%。在物价上涨方面，食品约占85%，主要局限在两大类：猪肉（中国民众的主食）和食用油。但由于大多数生产商在激烈竞争，其他食物价格只大约上升了1.5%。

The "good" news is that most of the recent price spikes were sparked by actions outside Beijing's control. Prices of cooking oil, much of which China imports, are being driven higher by global supply factors such as America's ethanol fervor, while domestic pork producers have been hit by a period of low prices in 2006 that pushed some producers out of the market. An outbreak of a pig disease last year further reduced supply. Cooking oil prices are up 35% year-on-year and pork 60%; other food prices are rising less dramatically.
“好”消息是：远非北京所能控制国际市场活动是引发近期物价上涨的罪魁祸首。受到全球供应因素的影响，如美国乙醇需求过热，食用油（大多是进口）的价格正被抬得越来越高。2006年猪肉价格的持续走低促使许多养猪户被迫退出市场，这使国内猪肉生产商受到重创。上年猪瘟的爆发进一步减少了供应量。食用油价格比去年同期上涨了35%，猪肉上涨了60%，而其他食品价格上涨幅度不是很大。

As for electricity, China is suffering from rising global coal prices -- 70% of its electricity generation is coal-fired -- and coal supply problems at home. This price crunch is partly due to the higher prices China must pay in dollar-pegged yuan for commodities that are already soaring on a U.S. Fed-fueled weak-dollar commodity boom. The closure of some smaller coal mines due to safety fears, plus all-around bad weather, is also helping to push up prices for electricity producers, while retail prices remain at artificially low levels thanks to longstanding price controls.
在电力方面，中国正遭受全球煤炭价格的上涨之苦。国内电力供应的70%依赖燃烧煤炭，而煤炭供应在国内却是问题不断。价格危机部分归结于中国必须以紧钉美元的人民币来高价支付货物，而在美联储激起的美元疲软的商品繁荣基础上，这些货物价格已正飞速上涨。出于对安全的忧虑，对一些小型煤矿的关闭，再加上大规模的恶劣天气，也正对电力生产商提高价格起着推动作用。但由于价格受到长期地控制，零售物价尚保持在人为的低水平。

This situation, which comes amid terrible winter weather and a coming holiday travel rush, would try any policy maker's free-market patience. Beijing has not been reluctant to dive back into the price controls it abandoned earlier, particularly for food prices that had previously been almost completely liberalized. The National Development and Reform Commission issued rules requiring large food producers to request permission 10 days ahead of time for any price increase; food sellers are required to register any price increases and might be asked to scale back the rises, presumably if Beijing thinks they're too dramatic.
受严冬恶劣天气的影响以及假期春运高峰的临近，严峻的形势将会考验决策者对自由市场的耐性。北京已不愿重走早年尚已抛弃的对物价限制的路线，尤其是在对以前几乎完全自由的食品价格方面。国家发改委已颁布法令，要求大型食品生产商在价格提升前10天要获得许可，要求食品经营者登记价格上涨的情况，如果北京当局认为物价上涨幅度过高，可能会要求价格回弹。

So far, signs are mixed on whether Beijing intends to follow through on these restrictions, or whether the rules are just a way of trying to "talk down" inflation. Even assuming it's the latter, though, this bit of PR could backfire. Brokerage firm CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets noted this week that some food producers are slightly reducing the amount of product in each package as a way of surreptitiously raising prices without attracting attention.
到目前为止，北京当局是否打算对物价加以限制，或制定法规是否只是尝试“高呼抑制”通货膨胀，这些迹象还很模糊。即便是后者，部分公关可能会适得其反。经纪公司里昂证券亚太区市场于本周指出，一些食品生产商正在稍微地减少每包产品的数量，去偷偷摸摸地提价。

Whatever the proximate causes this time around, China's bigger inflation problems generally trace back to Beijing's attempts to control the economy's growth and the resulting resource misallocations. That Beijing's first instinct when the going gets tough is to re-institute price controls is a bad augur for the Year of the Rat. 　
无论此次事件何去何从，中国较大的通货膨胀问题总的来说就在于北京当局对控制经济增长的尝试和能源分配的不当。在形势严峻时，北京方面恢复价格控制的第一本能反应对鼠年来说未必是好的征兆。

摘自：http://www.ecocn.org/forum/viewthread.php?tid=9043&extra=page%3D1